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5/20/08
11:10 pm
Live Search Cashback is up

Check it out now… http://search.live.com/cashback

Lots of coverage out there; I saw Todd report it first.

I’ll post some more tomorrow when I can play with it a bit more. Initially, it looks like Live Search Cashback is basically eBates on steroids. They’ve got a number of merchants signed up, and they’re doing both comparison shopping as well as splitting the commission on sale with the purchaser, thus giving a good reason to do comparison shopping @ Live Search. However, unlike Amazon’s Pro Merchant program, which I highly recommend, the customer goes directly to the shopping store. Amazon actually facilitates the transaction, thus the merchant in question doesn’t actually see the customer’s billing information and the merchant must abide by Amazon’s A-Z guarantee, esp. on returns. This is nice when dealing with notoriously sketchy merchants, such as digital camera dealers in New York that aren’t B&H Photo Video; it forces them to behave (and they are on Amazon!).

4/23/08
10:50 pm
Themes from Beijing

I’m attending WWW2008 in Beijing this week. It’s turned into a big of a monster conference… nine simultaneous tracks over three days, not to mention a day of workshops and tutorials! Yow! And I’m seeing a number of colleagues from the usual haunts here as well. Both Kai-Fu Lee, head of Google China, and Harry Shum, head of Microsoft’s Live Search development, each gave keynotes, and I thought the themes on them was quite interesting and contrasting.

Kai-Fu Lee’s theme was Cloud Computing, or moving to a world where data and computation was handled on remote anonymous servers and applications then ran. He gave an overview of a number of Google applications that ran on this - Search, Mail, etc. I was struck by one comment he made, which is that cloud computing frees people from the monopoly of a single company controlling everything. Except, of course, the company that runs everything in the cloud for you…. Meet the New Boss…. Same as the Old Boss! But digs at Microsoft aside, the path outlined was clearly focused on Web applications built out on cloud computing, with those applications all leveraging large scale, reliability, and naturally massive amounts of data to handle things.

Harry’s talk was more of a Company Meeting talk, in which he handed the microphone to Graham Sheldon to show off some demos, in particular highlighting some of the cool things MSRA is doing as well as some of the latest on the Live Search release. They led off with what I thought was the best, which is some work from MSRA’s speech group that extracts speech from video and then enables you to see related videos while watching them. It was put together well, so it isn’t so much a “watch while on the Web” demo but “imagine you’re watching TV” video. I’ll see if I can’t find a link, but good stuff. Also shown was Guanxi, which tries to do a people / relationship search… in this case, it showed who was related to Bill Gates. They also showed a demo where you could do query-by-image, which would show images related to a target image. I need to ask some of my former UW colleagues who did things like QBIC (Query By Image Content). The demos of released Live Search features were focused on new features in the News and Local Verticals, including some cool stuff from the Maps team (which continuously produces some great stuff). Oh, and they have a few things on health they’re experimenting with, and trying to get things hooked up with the HealthVault.

OK… so we have two “My company is doing cool stuff, come work for us!” keynotes. But do we have any insight here?

Yes. Google, as widely reported often and everywhere, is busy making an operating system platform of cloud computing that they then build their services on. They’re not actually selling or providing a cloud - Amazon is, with EC2 and S3. But they’re creating the applications that depend on the cloud.

Microsoft, on the other hand, isn’t really pushing the cloud platform. They have a number of components for that, but the demos shown are all slices on search. But they’re certainly not talking about the power of their platform; they’re talking about cool features. But I worry along that line. The problem they have, which they and Google are trying to address, is user flow. Users don’t go to a vertical, they go to search. So now the problem is to discover intent on when it’s appropriate to show essentially a house ad for a vertical with some content, and then create a compelling, and consistent, experience as a user moves from “search” into “news” or “health exploration” or whatever they’re doing.

What I can’t help but wonder is why neither appears to be really pursuing differentiated domains and brands. For example, I still don’t think of Google, Yahoo, nor Microsoft when I think “news.” I think CNN. And really, I don’t think “news search” so much, I want more of a news paper. Archival search is great, but should be from within the news portal. To that degree, I wonder why “Live News” isn’t more MSNBC, or even just a different URL, such as www.livenews.com (it’s some random news site… probably buyable!). Certainly there’s lots of direct visitation to www.youtube.com, and I’m still more familiar with www.mapquest.com than the URLs for Google, Yahoo, or Live maps.

Anyway, food for thought… as always, I’ll lie about updating this later as the conference progresses.

Update 4/25: We (a number of anonymous conference delegates, and yours truly) now have short synopses on all the keynotes. In order:

  • Kai-Fu Lee, Google: Use our stuff!
  • Harry Shum, Microsoft: We have stuff!
  • Sir Tim Berners-Lee, W3C: I invented stuff!
  • Robin Li, Baidu: I paid for this stuff!
  • David Belanger, AT&T Labs: We route stuff!

In fairness, we’re sort of making up Robin Li’s synopsis. Sir Tim’s keynote was somewhat, uh, long and rambly, and after about 30 minutes of it the audience in the Great Hall of the People got restless and started heading to the drink counters for more beer and wine. Sadly, by the time Robin got to the stage, the audience was in no mood to listen and was already engaged in conversation, so we’re not really sure what he said. But Baidu did sponsor the banquet, which rocked, so we thanked him for that.

David Belanger’s keynote was the best in my opinion… and not just because he didn’t do either a passive-aggressive product placement speech or an aggressive-aggressive product demo speech. He just talked about content, experience and devices, and networking to them and a lot of the challenges. For example, apparently as of 10 years ago when AT&T licensed out its rotary phone service, that was still upwards of a BILLION dollar business. For rotary phones. When a new touch-tone costs $10, or is often free. The main takeaways were that (a) there are loads of devices and enpoints, and it’s all increasing, and (b) the observation and re-iteration that old devices don’t go away slowly. The last is ignored at people’s peril… people hold on to things a lot longer than nearly everyone else would like.

4/06/08
11:35 pm
The #2 Strategy

I haven’t posted lately on the Microsoft / Yahoo bid. It’s been interesting seeing things unfold… I thought Yahoo would have been much more receptive to the offer. Or, more to the point, I thought Microsoft and Yahoo had already come to terms and this was more the public drama. But apparently not.

At the Microsoft company meeting last year, Steve Ballmer, in his big rah-rah speech at the end, mentioned that the first thing needed for the Search team was a plan to be #2. #2? Yeah… if you’re #3 (or #5, behind Baidu and Naver… sucks when your global service is smaller world-wide than a dominant local service in China and South Korea!). But let’s focus on the US market, so the goal is to move beyond Yahoo into the #2 position.

How, exactly, will that be done?

Seriously… there are millions of people who have Yahoo as their home page and use their search engine. The #1 query on Google is “Yahoo.” Yahoo, while declining in share a bit, is still huge and will hold on for years and years. They’ve held most of their customers, and their customers aren’t going anywhere. Not like Google hasn’t been around for a few years now.

So, let’s say Microsoft makes a search engine better than Yahoo. OK… will that get Yahoo customers? Doubtful. Why? There’s already a better engine: Google. Hasn’t been a flood of people moving over.

OK, so it’s a better engine… and better mail, messenger, portal?

I don’t buy that.

OK… so I’m not seeing a clear answer to get Yahoo customers to go to some newer, better thing quickly. So how about attacking Yahoo’s financials? Kill the ad network… compete on price, offer advertisers more for less. Lose tons, but it kills them.

OK, let’s say that works. You kill Yahoo financially, destroy the asset. Some advertisers have gone to Microsoft, others to Google. Hopefully the market hasn’t come down, even though in a recession it will and it looks like we’re in one. But the customers really aren’t moving… so Microsoft still has to buy Yahoo in the end.

So ultimately, it’s a question of buying a mostly healthy asset now at a premium, or dumping billions into weakening them for a later purchase… and hope that Google hasn’t just run away with things.

Thus, ultimately, I think Microsoft has to purchase Yahoo, and came to that conclusion earlier this year. Will there be tons of conflict? Yup. Problems integrating? Absolutely. A huge exodus of smart talent up 101 to Google? Damn straight.

But more to the point… how else can Microsoft get to #2? I don’t see it. So, they bet the company and try to buy Yahoo… cry havoc!

2/03/08
9:45 pm
Giant Upset! or, Nobody’s Perfect…

So that was probably the best SuperBowl I can remember. Sure, the Steelers’ victory in SuperBowl XL was the most satisfying, as my Steelers pulled it out. But this was the first game I was pretty much glued to… there was no room for error, and every mistake or great play could well be “the play of the game.” The first two drives gave a preview of a “field goal for touchdown” type game. But then the defenses stepped up and kept up until the fourth quarter, when both QBs started to pass more and make key drives.

At the end of the day, the Patriots’ D blinked first, and Eli and the Giants managed to pick up two touchdowns in exchange for one, defeating the undefeated. Wow.

Oh, and I was rooting for the Giants… mostly because I was rooting against Belichek. But that’s just me. :)

1/19/08
1:50 am
Lack of updates…

I’ve got a few half-written posts, but I haven’t been inspired to finish them yet. Also been tired, and the learning curve at Amazon is as steep as you might expect. But I am still alive!
One note… some self-analysis, if you will. I’ve noticed my addiction to FaceBook is changing. I’ve started to pay less attention to the home page / status updates / news feeds, and now head straight to apps I like (which invariably is Scrabulous and a possibly passing interest in Knighthood). I’m also noticing that apps are getting more annoying… seems every app wants me to continue to invite friends. Bah. So I’m wondering what the longevity of FaceBook is… will it continue it’s growth, or will it too fade in popularity like the other social networking sites.

1/01/08
5:55 pm
New Year’s Predictions!

Hey everyone,

Been a restful and quiet holiday season here at the ranch, so haven’t been posting. I know I know. At any rate, I thought I’d state some bold, crazy, and just downright mind-bottling predictions.

Politics

  • Huckabee beats out McCain for the Republican nomination.
  • Clinton defeats Obama and Edwards.
  • Clinton then defeats Huckabee in the General Election, making Dennis Miller’s predictions of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton a reality. In an ironic twist, people desire a “Bridge to the Past” — in particular, the world prior to the Bush Administration. Booming economy, no war, good times.

Search

  • Google picks up another 5% share. Microsoft starts to spend serious money, still doesn’t buy Yahoo.
  • Baidu solidifies in China in a big way.
  • Emerging Markets become competitive (South America, India, Russia, etc.) towards the end of the year.
  • IAC (Ask.com) merges with Yahoo.
  • Personalization (personalized search and personalized ads, in particular) become differentiating features.
  • FaceBook Web Search appears (powered by Microsoft). Google pushes their own FB search app heavily.

Football

  • New England gets taken down.

Basketball

  • Clay Bennett keeps trying to move the Sonics, but can’t get out of the lease until 2010. Both sides dig in. Resolution in 2009.

Personal Hopes

  • Randy Pauch sees 2009.

Oh yeah - not making any retail / Amazon predictions this year, mostly as I’m still busy learning about the space.

Happy New Year everyone!

11/07/07
9:52 pm
Future blackmail material…

truffula.jpegMy four year old daughter has a way with words, it turns out. She loves to use them, and loves to describe things to us and tell us about her accomplishments of the day so we’ll be proud. She’ll tell us what she did at school or what she did with friends. She’ll tell us what she ate, and she’s not bashful about saying whether things were good (”I ate every single bite!”) or whether she had her fill (”It wasn’t so good…”). And then, typically at the end of the day, after emerging from the bathroom, she’ll tell us about her poop.

She hasn’t quite picked up that talking about one’s poop isn’t socially done, nor has she figured out the normal ways people describe their poop when they do describe it. She doesn’t use words like hard, soft, big, or little. Oh no. For a four year old, there are so many interesting ways to describe poop, because, as it turns out, to a four year old (or Mike Rowe) there are so many different kinds of poop.

Tree poop, for example.

Tree poop is not poop from a tree. Tree poop is poop that looks like a tree. Apparently, a Truffula Tree.

This evening, she had a new kind of poop.

Dead bird poop.

Apparently, dead bird poop is when there’s a lot of poop, and some of it gets on the seat, and it’s really gross. Like a dead bird.

She’s going to hate it when I tell her kids about this.

Update 11/9: Today, it was a flower poop and a squid poop.

10/07/07
12:15 am
Reason #1 why Comcast doesn’t suck

OK… so in general, I have a fairly low opinion of Comcast, my cable provider. In general, I find that they provide commodity services at high prices, but operate as a near-monopoly, thus I’m stuck with them. Blech.

One of the random features we get with our cable is the digital music package. For the most part, these are just throw-in channels of music, and we listen to them occasionally. Usually, we listen to the Sound of the Seasons during Christmas, where they put on various Christmas carols.

Today, I had a small Octoberfest party, and I wondered if, perhaps, just maybe, Comcast might have something apropriate on Sound of the Seasons. So, I turned on the TV, found the channel, and was greeted with…

German Beer Drinking Songs.

And that is just Comcastic!

10/04/07
9:25 pm
I miss the World Birthday Web

Back in the good old days of the Web (which would be, oh, 1993 - 1995), there was Thomas Boutell’s World Birthday Web, a goofy site where you could put your birthday in and see who else had the same birthday. The cool thing was that every day on your birthday, you’d get a number of random “Happy Birthday!” greetings from random people. Like the Klingon automailer from the Klingon Language Institute:

A very happy birthday to you, from the Klingon Language Institute!
Or, as we like to say “Quchjaj qoSlIj.”
DuQuchmoH neH jajvam ‘e’ wItulbej

or some random people from Norway:

Hi Erik, and a happy birthday to you!
I’m a norwegian guy currently listening to a radio program about the Internet - you know, cool links, and so on.
So they mentioned this birthday page, I went there, and stuck with your name because it had a very norwegian touch - besides it was at the top of the list , -)

So here’s a birthday wish from
Frode, Oslo, Norway

or Italy:

Hello,
I have found your name in the boutell birthday list...
:-)-----------------------------------:-)
 :-)  Every good wish for your birthday  :-)
:-)-----------------------------------:-)
Michele
 ______________________________________________________
Michele - Milano - Italy

Now, it helped that I was at the top of the list for Oct. 4, so I got a bunch for a while up until Thomas took the site down for a few years. Sadly, it’s but a shell of it’s former self… and I’m not at the top anymore. :(

But hey, now we have FaceBook, and thanks to everyone that wrote on my wall!

9/20/07
2:25 pm
Really Achieving your Childhood Dreams

20070919pprandypausch_330.jpg

Tuesday, Sept. 18th, Randy Pauch gave his Last Lecture. The idea behind the series is for a professor to give the lecture they’d give if it were their last lecture before he or she died. Sadly, as it turns out, Randy nailed the venue. He has pancreatic cancer, and about 3-6 months to live. I never interacted with Randy; we missed each other at CMU. But he’s one of the truly great guys in academia and computer science, and will be missed.

His last lecture is one of the best that I’ve ever seen, and is well worth the time. Watch it.