Back in February, I started the 20/20 Lifestyles Program through the PROClub. The 20/20 Lifestyles Program is an intensive weight loss program focusing on both diet and exercise. Lots of people at Microsoft have gone through it and the results have been pretty impressive. Well, after 20-something weeks, here’s what it did for me:

vs

and focusing on the face:

vs

That’s what 65 pounds doesn’t look like… I’m currently bouncing around 200 on my way to 191 (the final 10 pounds are the toughest!). So, now that I’ve had some time to digest things, if you’ll pardon the pun, I thought I’d start putting up some posts on the program, going through it, and what I’m doing to stay at this weight. As it turns out, if you can get your body to stay a set weight for two years, it’s yours.. otherwise, your body will naturally go to whatever previous weight you had (high or low) — the dreaded “set point.”

It’s a snow day here in Seattle, which means I and everyone else without four wheel drive is home waiting for the ice to melt off the roads. Thus, I’m able to respond to some of the public comments out there on my recent post about search.

First, let me cut to the chase… the three questions that everyone asks me about search when they find out I’m from Microsoft are:

1. Will Microsoft beat Google?
2. How will Microsoft beat Google?
3. When will Microsoft beat Google?

Let me answer them: Maybe. By building products customers prefer over Google. Not soon.

Maybe? Maybe? What’s this, why on earth is some Microsoft employee saying maybe? What, is his 2007 New Year’s Resolution to send his resume to Google or Yahoo or some other startup? Why is this guy on the team? Fire him now!

Yeah, Microsoft might beat Google. And Google might beat Microsoft. There aren’t many that have beaten Microsoft, but there are a couple. Intuit, for example. So what am I doing here? Well, there’s nothing as boring as a fight when the outcome is certain. If I wanted to work somewhere that had 90% share and whose competition was the inertia to upgrade, well, I’d work for the Windows or Office teams. If I wanted to work somewhere that had no chance of cracking 25% let alone winning, and whose only real happy outcome it to be acquired for the traffic, I’d work at Ask (sorry guys). No, I want to be where the action is — the big leagues with everyone giving it their all. I’m confident we can win, but there’s nothing like going up against someone who is equally confident they can win as well. I don’t want to work somewhere where it’s clear that I’ll be on the winning side as long as I punch in every day. I want to be somewhere where it’s not clear that I’ll be on the winning side unless I give it my all. So yeah… it’s definitely a maybe, and I wouldn’t want it to be any other way.

I won’t speak on When besides the obvious. Google is pressing ahead, and they’ve got a big lead. So unless they do something monumentally stupid, which I doubt, it’ll be a long, tough challenge to catch and beat them. I don’t think that means it’s a 20 year thing, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it were 5 years. Hopefully we can get it done sooner, but again, they’re good.

As for How… here’s an interesting quote from Danny’s comment on my comment on his post (echo echo echo):

Microsoft has changed four or five times in radical ways over the past two years, including an entire brand change. The last service to change so much like this was AltaVista, which I joked could give Madonna a run for her money in the image change department. None of those changes helped AltaVista. For Microsoft, I think it would actually benefit from really locking down the overall look-and-feel for an extended period. The good news is, I suspect that’s actually going to be the case. New features seem likely to be added, but yet another redesign doesn’t seem in the works.

I’m not sure how he’s counting, but essentially, I see two changes:

1. Jan 31, 2005: We re-launched MSN Search with our own engine. This was mostly an under-the-hood change.
2. Sep 11, 2006: We launched Live.com. This was mostly a cosmetic change; the underlying engine was the same (as far as Web search results go).

When I joined the team in Feb of 2004, my prediction then was that we’d keep the MSN brand as long as our engine was noticably worse than our competition. As soon as it was competitive, we’d find that the effort to transform the MSN brand into one that resonated high quality search would be overly challenging, and we’d transform into something else. That has essentially played out - although to be fair, the decisions made may be purely coincidental with my prediction — I’m not that high up the corporate chain.
Live.com is the big bet, as is plainly obvious to everyone. There will be some brand unification and hopefully some renaming to simpler things (I’m still hoping for Live Maps instead of the ungainly Windows Live Local myself, but that’s just me), and lots of angst over making things consistent across the entire Live.com world versus making an individual property optimal. But overall, you’ll start to see a lot of stuff coming from Live.

Of course, the key question is, will it be better than the cool stuff coming from Google? Well… maybe.

Edited to remove overly strong and unfairly negative language regarding the MSN brand.

As has been widely reported, the Big 3 search companies have been going through some organizational headaches of late. You’ve got Google’s “focus on features” initiatives, Yahoo’s “peanut butter manifesto,” and some changes as the top here at Microsoft as Steve Sinofsky can focus on Windows Live now that Vista is out the door — especially given the recent trends in query share. I’ll summarize for those who don’t want to read to the bottom of Danny’s post:

Bella Rosa, one of my favorite restaurants as well as my wife’s, has apparently been sold! My wife was driving by and noticed the signage was down and the windows were covered with white paper. While we surmised that it could be a remodel during Thanksgiving restaurant dead-time, the lack of outside signage made us worried. So I called… and found out the horrible truth! Not sure on the details yet, but apparently Atouani and Ali Chalal, the owners, are moving out of state somewhere. At least that’s what the woman who answered the phone said.

No idea if they’ll still have fine Moroccan delicacies such as Cous Cous Merguez (one of my favorites) or Shrimp Pilpil, or even the Italian dishes like Vitello ala Dolce Vita.

Ah well… it was the restaurant at which I proposed to Mary Kaye and we’ll always have those memories. And we’ll see how things are when they reopen under new management in January… hopefully, they won’t be another clone of La Dolce Vita Salute La Piazza, which is the less good Italian place on the corner.

A few weeks ago, I joined Union Bay Cycling / Wines of Washington cycling team. However, with Microsoft Flag Football games on Saturday (Fatal Errors are 10-0! Playoffs after holiday! Woot!) and my son being born two weeks early, I haven’t been able to join the Saturday devo (development - Cat 4/5) rides. Well, today was our football bye week, so 9 AM I met up with another 50-odd new friends and off we went!

One of the reasons for joining a team is to learn how to ride fast in a group. Certainly, there are classes available, such as the one Cascade holds . But ultimately, the theory is pretty easy to get across for a paceline: ride about a foot off the wheel of the person in front of you, keep your eyes on the shoulder not the wheel, and don’t pull (be at the front) more than you should.

What you then need is lots and lots of practice. Riding a foot off a wheel while dealing with changing speeds along the road is a lot tougher than it appears… and invariably, your reaction to almost anything is to slow down and get some space — which means you open up a gap of more like 3-6 feet between you and the next rider. The difference? One enables you to draft, the other gives you a face full of wind.

Tomorrow is the skills clinic the guys put on… lots of additional detail outlining what us rookies should be doing, how to ride together, team strategies, and so forth. Good stuff… I can’t wait!

I figured I’d post the Premera charges for the birth of our son. Remember, this was about as minimal a birth as you can get… right into the hospital, and pop! baby! No drugs, no nothing.

Claim #1: Surgery, $3729.00, billed $2539.24.

This was for sewing up two small tears that happened when the baby was born.

Oh yes - I forgot to say that our cost is $0… Microsoft does have great benefits!

Our daughter has been able to dress herself (more or less) for some time now, and any help we provide is minimal. She’s only in pull-ups at night, and I suspect that’ll go soon as well. It’s been a while since we’ve had to change a poopy diaper, and even longer since Laura would fight or scream while being changed.

Ah, welcome back to newborns…

Getting back into the habit of newborn maintenance is a lot tougher than I thought. Diapers are a bit trickier, especially as he’s a boy and you need to be a bit more careful to avoid being peed on in mid-change. Changing is also a challenge, as he’ll struggle and I’m trying to remember how to get his clothes over his head. And then there’s holding him properly while supporting his head, keeping his head up while he’s laying on your lap, making sure you don’t bleach his socks, and on and on and on…

It’s coming back, but wow… I forgot how hard this is!

Still totally worth it when he’s sleeping on my lap though.

A week and a half ago, my son arrived early. He’ll be able to vote on Nov. 5th, 2024, a presidential election, instead of having to wait until Nov. 4th, 2025. When he votes for the first time, I wonder what will shape his beliefs, as I reflect a bit on what has shaped mine and how I view yesterday’s election results.

In case you’re reading this years in the future, or from somewhere else in the world where US midterm elections aren’t that interesting, the Democrats have retaken the House and barring weirdness in two recounts have retaken the Senate, effectively ending the Bush agenda for the last two years of his presidency. More importantly, again barring recount weirdness in two races in Georgia, the Republicans did not have a single pickup in a major (House / Senate / Governor). Republicans lost across the board and all across the country, and in districts that are typically heavily Republican. In effect, it feels that the Republican Revolution of 1994 has been effectively reversed.

Now, I doubt that’s the case.. it’s not clear people want to go back to 1992, but clearly what we have had lately isn’t what people want either. So it’ll be interesting to see what happens over the next 18 years…

Here’s my 2-year prediction.

After a chummy two months of, “Sure, we can work together!” by both sides, the 110th Congress is sworn in. George Bush never sees another bill he likes, and his lame duckery begins in earnest. Democrats celebrate the halting of the Bush agenda, Bush vetoes lots of bills and starts claiming that he and the rest of the Republicans are halting the big government liberals. Iraq continues to be a mess, although there are now hearings and oversight on the prisoners / enemy combatants as well as profiteering (sell your Haliburton stock now!). But ultimately, we’re still stuck in Iraq in 2 years, and the Dems take the White House in 2008.